Africa Leads Global Aviation Growth, but Structural Constraints Continue to Undermine Sustainability

African aviation continues to post some of the strongest demand growth figures globally, yet the sector remains structurally constrained by low profitability, high costs, safety performance gaps and unresolved policy failures.

According to the presentation delivered by Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, at the recent AFRAA Annual General Assembly, global aviation performance in 2024 and 2025 has remained resilient despite geopolitical instability, economic headwinds and supply chain disruption. Passenger volumes increased by 5.3 percent year on year over the first ten months, while cargo volumes grew by 3.3 percent. Cargo performance, in particular, underscores the sector’s capacity to adapt under pressure.

Africa outperformed every other region on both metrics. Passenger demand grew by 8.8 percent, well above the global average of 6.6 percent, while cargo volumes expanded by 16.6 percent, the highest rate worldwide. On the surface, these figures signal momentum and market potential. In reality, they conceal deep operational and financial constraints that continue to limit the sector’s ability to convert demand into sustainable outcomes.

Passenger load factors across African airlines remain largely constant at 74.1 percent in October, but are low relative to the global average of 84.6 percent. This gap reflects structural limitations rather than weak demand.

Limited route networks, constrained infrastructure capacity and fragmented regulatory frameworks restrict airlines’ ability to optimise schedules, scale operations and fully utilise available capacity. Growth exists, but the operating environment prevents airlines from capturing it efficiently.

A critical distinction for African aviation is the gap between traffic growth and financial performance. While the global airline industry is projected to generate USD 36 billion in net profit in 2025, this represents a modest margin on nearly USD 1 trillion in global revenue. African airlines, by contrast, continue to operate on extremely thin margins.

Average net profit per seat in Africa stands at approximately USD 1.2. By comparison, the global average is around USD 7.7 per seat, while airlines in Gulf Cooperation Council markets generate well above USD 20 per seat. At this level, African airlines remain structurally disadvantaged, with limited capacity to reinvest, renew fleets or expand sustainably.

The implication is clear. Strong demand alone does not resolve systemic cost pressures, regulatory inefficiencies or capital constraints. Without intervention, African airlines will remain trapped in a low-margin environment regardless of traffic growth.

Improving intra-African connectivity remains central to unlocking market potential, with recent efforts now shifting from policy and contractual alignment towards implementation, fully supported by industry bodies such as AFRAA, AFCAC and AASA.

However, connectivity gains will only be meaningful if accompanied by cost reform, regulatory harmonisation and infrastructure readiness.

Operating costs remain one of the most damaging constraints on African aviation. Taxes, charges, levies and fees across the continent are, on average, 15 percent higher than the global norm, despite lower overall cost-of-living conditions in many markets.

This imbalance directly erodes airline profitability. When net profit per seat is USD 1.2, even marginal increases in charges materially affect viability. The economics become particularly stark when capital costs are considered.

Hypothetically, a new wide-body aircraft can cost approximately USD 200 million. Five such aircraft represent an investment comparable to the cost of building a major airport, estimated at around USD 1 billion. In this context, the question for Africa becomes why such investments should be made when returns are limited to USD 1.2 per seat.

Persistent increases in taxes, fees, levies and service charges leave little room for strategic growth. With margins already compressed, airlines face limited justification for fleet expansion or long-term investment planning.

The result is a cycle in which airlines prioritise survival over growth, delaying fleet renewal, limiting network expansion and constraining service quality. Without structural reform, growth potential remains largely theoretical.

African airlines, operating under higher cost burdens and regulatory fragmentation, are unable to close this gap under current conditions, and this, Al-Awadhi stressed, needs to change.

According to the analysis presented by Al-Awadhi, global supply chain disruption has added an estimated USD 11 billion in costs to the airline industry. This includes USD 4.2 billion in excess fuel costs, USD 3.1 billion in additional maintenance costs linked to ageing fleets, USD 2.6 billion in higher engine lease rates and USD 1.4 billion in surplus inventory.

Disrupted delivery schedules and parts shortages have forced airlines to hold significantly larger inventories, tying up capital in spare parts rather than operations. While airlines had previously streamlined inventory management, current conditions require higher stock levels to maintain dispatch reliability.

For African airlines, which are already capital-constrained, this represents an additional and significant burden.

Blocked funds remain an existential threat

Few issues illustrate the fragility of airline cash flow more clearly than blocked funds. Airlines operate on immediate payment cycles, settling fuel, navigation, handling, maintenance and catering costs continuously. Delays or restrictions on revenue repatriation directly disrupt operations.

Blocked funds expose airlines to currency depreciation, eroding the real value of earnings over time. In documented cases, funds released after prolonged delays have lost up to 50 percent of their value, turning reported profits into operational losses.

This practice creates a fundamental imbalance. Governments and service providers require immediate payment for aviation services, while airlines are denied timely access to their own revenue. The result is increased financial stress, reduced liquidity and, in extreme cases, a direct threat to airline continuity.

Some African states have made progress in resolving blocked funds, while others have not. As one market improves, another emerges with similar restrictions, preventing a durable resolution. This issue, Al-Awadhi noted, must remain at the top of the industry agenda.

Safety performance remains a critical red flag

Safety data highlights one of the most serious structural challenges facing African aviation. In 2025, the global accident rate stands at 1.1 accidents per million flights. In Africa, the rate cited stands at 10.3 accidents per million flights.

The accident rate itself remains unacceptably high. The absence of fatalities does not offset the underlying risk profile. Airlines, airports, civil aviation authorities, air navigation service providers, regulators and associations all sit within this safety ecosystem, and improvement requires coordinated action across all of them.

To this end, Al-Awadhi confirmed that at the end of April 2026, IATA will host a Focus Africa event in Addis Ababa, where two major initiatives will be launched to address airline, airport and civil aviation safety standards.

Developed over two years by experts in Geneva and Montreal, these standards are intended for initial implementation across approximately 16 states, with the explicit aim of driving tangible, measurable improvements in safety performance across the continent.

In closing, Al-Awadhi reminded the industry that IATA and industry associations such as AFRAA and AASA exist to serve airlines and remain available to support them 24/7.