Africa’s aviation fuel landscape is under growing strain. While global efforts to scale Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) are faltering under the weight of high costs and policy missteps, Southern Africa continues to grapple with basic fuel security challenges. The slowdown in global SAF production, highlighted by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), coupled with a recent jet fuel shortage at Cape Town International Airport, shows a deeper structural problem: the continent risks being left behind in both the energy transition and the reliability of conventional fuel supply.
There is now an urgent need for coordinated policy reform, infrastructure investment, and pragmatic incentives if Africa is to secure its aviation future.
Global SAF Growth Slows as Policy Changes Have an Impact
According to IATA, global SAF production is expected to reach 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, up from 1 million tonnes in 2024. While this represents year-on-year growth, momentum is already slowing. Production is projected to rise to only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, falling short of earlier expectations.
Even at these levels, SAF remains marginal, accounting for just 0.6% of global jet fuel consumption in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026. The cost implications are substantial. IATA estimates that airlines will incur an additional USD 3.6 billion in fuel costs in 2025 due to SAF premiums alone.
The slowdown is not a function of technology limitations but of policy design. IATA attributes the downward revision in production forecasts to insufficient incentives and poorly structured mandates, particularly in Europe and the United Kingdom, where regulatory frameworks have driven up prices without unlocking meaningful new supply.
Mandates Without Incentives: Lessons from Europe and the UK
European and UK SAF mandates were intended to accelerate adoption, but IATA argues they have instead distorted markets. Under the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation framework, limited SAF capacity and oligopolistic supply chains have allowed fuel suppliers to charge airlines up to five times the cost of conventional jet fuel and, in some cases, double prevailing SAF market prices, without guaranteeing supply or transparency.
The UK’s SAF mandate has produced similar outcomes, triggering price spikes that airlines have been forced to absorb. Collectively, airlines paid an estimated USD 2.9 billion in premiums for the limited SAF volumes available in 2025, of which USD 1.4 billion reflects the intrinsic price gap between SAF and fossil-based jet fuel.
These dynamics have forced some airlines to reconsider their sustainability commitments. IATA warns that carriers targeting 10% SAF usage by 2030 may be unable to meet those goals simply because sufficient fuel will not be available.
Africa’s Marginal Role in the Global SAF Outlook
For Africa, the global SAF picture is particularly concerning. By 2030, global SAF production capacity is expected to reach approximately 20 million tonnes, assuming realistic project success rates. However, less than 1% of this capacity is projected to come from Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia combined under current policy conditions.
This marginalisation persists despite Africa’s significant potential: abundant renewable energy resources, large tracts of available land, and proximity to emerging green hydrogen opportunities. The absence of coherent incentives, project finance mechanisms, and supportive regulatory frameworks has kept SAF investment concentrated in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia.
Compounding the challenge is limited technology diversification. Around 95% of SAF production is still expected to rely on HEFA pathways, which are constrained by feedstock availability. Newer technologies, such as Alcohol-to-Jet, Power-to-Liquid (e-SAF), and gasification-based Fischer-Tropsch fuels, remain underdeveloped, limiting Africa’s ability to leapfrog into scalable next-generation solutions.
Southern Africa’s Conventional Fuel Vulnerabilities Laid Bare
While SAF remains a long-term ambition, Southern Africa is still struggling with the fundamentals of fuel supply. In December, Cape Town International Airport experienced widespread disruption after a sudden jet fuel shortage forced airlines to delay, reroute, or cancel flights.
The immediate cause was a breakdown in the logistics chain: transport inefficiencies, slower refinery output, and delays in offloading imported fuel sharply reduced on-site reserves. Airlines were instructed to limit refuelling, triggering cascading operational disruptions and exposing the fragility of South Africa’s aviation fuel infrastructure.
Passengers faced long queues, missed connections, and limited communication as airlines scrambled to adjust schedules. Although emergency measures, including increased tanker movements and coordinated fuel allocation, eventually stabilised operations, the incident highlighted deeper systemic risks in fuel transport reliability.
A Dual Transition Africa Cannot Afford to Miss
Africa now faces a dual challenge. On one hand, the continent risks exclusion from the global transition to sustainable aviation fuels due to policy inertia and underinvestment. On the other, recurring disruptions to conventional fuel supply underscore the urgent need to modernise logistics, storage, and refinery capacity.
The lessons from Europe are clear: mandates alone will not deliver fuel security or decarbonisation. For Africa, the priority must be pragmatic, strengthening existing fuel supply chains while creating targeted incentives that attract SAF investment, encourage technology diversification, and reduce long-term costs.
Without decisive action, Africa’s aviation sector may find itself squeezed between rising global compliance costs and persistent local supply vulnerabilities, an outcome that would undermine connectivity, economic growth, and the continent’s role in a decarbonising global economy.
