5 February 2026

Airbus Maps Africa’s Aviation Growth Through Fleet Forecasting, Skills Development and Decarbonisation

Airbus sets out its long-term outlook for African aviation, covering fleet demand, skills development, training efficiency and decarbonisation priorities.
A31neo Egyptair ©Airbus A31neo Egyptair ©Airbus
A31neo Egyptair ©Airbus A31neo Egyptair ©Airbus
Written by:
Phillippa Dean
Phillippa Dean
Contents

On the sidelines of the 57th Annual General Assembly of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), held late last year, African Pilot Magazine spoke with Joep Ellers, Airbus Airline Marketing Director for Africa, about the company’s long-standing presence on the continent, its growth outlook for African aviation and how Airbus is aligning its aircraft, support structures and sustainability agenda with future market needs.

Airbus will mark 50 years of operations in Africa in 2026, a milestone that traces back to October 1976, when the company’s first aircraft entered service on the continent with what is today South African Airways. Ellers notes that Airbus’s African footprint has expanded steadily since then.

Forecasting Africa’s growth trajectory

Airbus’s long-term view of African aviation is shaped by its Global Market Forecast, a 20-year forward-looking analysis that examines traffic growth, fleet requirements and infrastructure needs. Ellers explains that Airbus expects passenger traffic to, from and within Africa to double over the next two decades.

Based on this forecast, Airbus anticipates a requirement for approximately 1,500 new aircraft for African airlines. Of these, around 80 percent are expected to be single-aisle aircraft, which Ellers describes as the workhorses of the market, with the remaining 20 percent comprising widebody aircraft. This represents a significant expansion in capacity and a substantial opportunity for fleet renewal and network development.

To support this growth, Airbus has recently established a presence in Johannesburg, although Ellers is clear that this is not a commercial sales office. Instead, it functions as a customer support centre, focused on assisting airlines as they scale their operations. The centre also plays a role in skills development and training. While much of the current staffing consists of Airbus personnel from outside the continent, Ellers indicates that the intention is to progressively bring more local professionals into the organisation, with a strong emphasis on upskilling and long-term capability building.

Beyond aircraft operations, Airbus is also supporting airlines in developing the wider aviation ecosystem, including assistance with setting up maintenance organisations, not simply operating aircraft.

People as a critical constraint

Fleet growth inevitably brings human resource challenges, and Ellers highlights the importance of workforce planning alongside aircraft deliveries. Airbus publishes a Global Services Forecast that looks beyond aircraft numbers to assess demand for pilots, technicians, cabin crew and a wide range of operational and support services.

Airbus estimates that Africa will require around 25,000 additional pilots over the next 20 years. This demand sits alongside growing need for technical staff and cabin crew, as well as services linked to performance optimisation and cabin refurbishment.

Ellers notes that while aircraft are delivered with new cabins, many airlines look to refresh their interiors after seven or eight years in service, either to reflect evolving market expectations or to reposition their product offering. This ongoing lifecycle support forms part of Airbus’s broader engagement with operators.

Training efficiencies through commonality

Pilot training is a particular area of focus for Airbus, and Ellers points to what he describes as a distinctive aspect of the Airbus philosophy: fly-by-wire technology combined with cross-crew qualification and mixed fleet flying.

The transition training takes around eight days and focuses specifically on the differences between aircraft types, rather than re-teaching core flying skills for a particular aircraft type.  This approach delivers substantial savings in both time and cost.

Mixed fleet flying further enhances operational flexibility. Under this model, pilots can hold dual licences, for example on the A320 and A330, allowing them to operate both aircraft types. Ellers notes that this enables airlines to reduce standby requirements, streamline recurrent training and complete mandatory landings on either aircraft type, all of which contribute to lower operating costs.

Recurrent training can be done on either of the aircraft types. Meaning that the compulsory recurrent training required every six months can be done on the A320 or on the A330.

First A330neo delivery to Air Côte d'Ivoire ©Airbus
First A330neo delivery to Air Côte d’Ivoire ©Airbus

Decarbonisation beyond fuel alone

When discussing sustainability, Ellers prefers to frame the conversation around decarbonisation rather than focusing exclusively on Sustainable Aviation Fuel. SAF is described as one of five pillars in Airbus’s decarbonisation strategy.

Ellers notes that SAF can deliver up to an 80 percent reduction in lifecycle carbon emissions and confirms that by 2030, all Airbus aircraft in operation will be capable of flying on 100 percent SAF. However, he emphasises that decarbonisation also involves improving what can be done today with existing technology.

This includes operational measures such as more efficient use of airspace, single-engine taxi procedures, and flight profile optimisation. Ellers describes how optimised descent profiles reduce unnecessary acceleration and deceleration, allowing aircraft to glide more efficiently and minimise fuel burn.

Fleet modernisation is identified as another critical pillar. Ellers notes that the latest generation of aircraft uses around 25 percent less fuel than the aircraft they replace. He adds that, globally, around 30 percent of the world’s jet fleet now consists of latest-generation aircraft. In Africa, that figure stands at approximately 25 percent, which Ellers describes as comparatively strong performance for the continent.

Looking ahead to future technologies

Beyond current measures, Airbus continues to invest in longer-term solutions aligned with the industry’s net zero emissions target for 2050. Ellers explains that Airbus has been exploring hydrogen technologies, although progress has slowed due to challenges associated with developing the necessary infrastructure rather than limitations in the technology itself.

One of the more promising areas under investigation is hydrogen fuel cell technology, where hydrogen is used to generate electricity to power electric motors driving the aircraft. Alongside this, Airbus is continuing to study the next generation of aircraft, with a potential entry into service around 2035. These future platforms are being targeted to deliver an additional 20 percent fuel savings compared with current-generation aircraft, which themselves already represent a step-change in efficiency.

Ellers is clear that these concepts remain in the market study phase and that no formal announcements have yet been made.

Right-sizing fleets through data

Fleet planning, Ellers explains, is increasingly driven by data rather than assumptions. Airbus’s product line spans aircraft from around 100 seats to 490 seats, allowing it to address a wide range of network requirements.

When engaging with airline customers, Ellers notes that the focus is not on pushing a specific aircraft type, but on analysing forecast data to determine the appropriate aircraft size and range for each route. This includes assessing whether an airline needs short-haul, long-haul or extended-range capability, and then matching those requirements to the most suitable aircraft within the Airbus portfolio.

Profitability and operating costs remain central to these discussions, alongside the inevitable competitive comparisons that form part of the aircraft selection process.

Mayday-SA

A long-term partnership approach

As Airbus approaches its 50-year milestone in Africa, Ellers presents a picture of a manufacturer focused on long-term partnership rather than short-term sales. Fleet growth, skills development, operational efficiency and decarbonisation are treated as interconnected challenges, requiring coordinated solutions across aircraft, people and infrastructure.

With African air traffic forecast to double over the next two decades, Airbus’s strategy reflects an expectation that the continent will play an increasingly important role in global aviation, supported by a modernised fleet, a growing skills base and a steadily evolving sustainability framework.

World Fuel

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