As the global aviation industry looks towards 2026, it does so against a backdrop of mounting uncertainty. According to Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), five key risks are set to shape the sector’s near-term future. These include policy fragmentation, supply chain disruption, climate-related instability, cyber and artificial intelligence threats, and a challenging macroeconomic outlook.
While many of these risks are still emerging at a global level, one has already taken firm hold across Africa. Supply chain disruption, particularly a worldwide shortage of aircraft spare parts, is no longer a future concern for African airlines. It is a present and costly reality, grounding aircraft, disrupting schedules and placing additional strain on an industry that is otherwise poised for growth.
A Global Risk Already Hitting Home
In her assessment of the year ahead, Owens Thomsen highlights supply chain disruption as a structural constraint that is capping industry growth worldwide. Record-high aircraft order backlogs and slow production rates have created a mismatch between airline needs and manufacturer output, a situation IATA does not expect to fully resolve before the early 2030s.
For African carriers, the consequences are immediate and acute. A global shortage of spare parts for grounded or unserviceable aircraft has led to prolonged maintenance delays, forcing airlines to park aircraft for months at a time. According to IATA, this has resulted in increased flight delays and cancellations across the continent, disproportionately affecting smaller and mid-sized airlines with limited fleet depth.
Air Senegal, Kenya Airways and Uganda Airlines have been among those cited as adversely impacted, with at least one aircraft grounded during the past year. For airlines operating lean business models and narrow margins, the loss of even a single aircraft can significantly disrupt route networks and revenue performance.
The Economic Cost of Grounded Fleets
IATA estimates that the knock-on effects of grounded aircraft and operational inefficiencies could cost Africa’s aviation industry in excess of US$11 billion. Beyond the airlines themselves, the impact is being felt across tourism, trade and related sectors that depend on reliable air connectivity.
Flight uncertainty has a direct bearing on traveller confidence, particularly for international tourists and business travellers. As delays and cancellations increase, Africa risks losing market share to competing destinations perceived as more dependable, at a time when global competition for tourism revenue is intensifying.
This is especially concerning given the broader economic role aviation plays on the continent. Air transport is not merely a means of travel; it is an enabler of commerce, investment and regional integration. Any sustained disruption to airline operations, therefore, reverberates well beyond airport terminals.
Profitability Masks Structural Fragility
Globally, airlines entered 2025 facing significant headwinds, not least the threat of trade tariffs and retaliatory economic measures. Yet, in spite of these challenges, the industry recorded a net profit of US$39.5 billion, a headline figure that suggests resilience.
However, as Owens Thomsen cautions, this profitability belies a fragile reality. Even at an expected net margin of 3.9% in 2026, aviation remains one of the lowest-margin industries in the world, having never exceeded a 5% net margin. On a per-passenger basis, projected profits amount to just US$7.90, less than what some technology companies earn from selling a single accessory.
For African airlines, already grappling with currency volatility, high operating costs and limited access to capital, supply chain disruptions further compress margins and reduce room for manoeuvre.
Growth Prospects Remain, If Risks Are Managed
These challenges emerge at a time when Africa’s aviation sector is otherwise well positioned for expansion. A growing middle class, increased urbanisation, and rising demand for intra-African travel are all expected to drive long-term growth.
Policy initiatives such as the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are intended to liberalise air services, stimulate competition and strengthen regional connectivity. If effectively implemented, they could act as powerful catalysts for airline expansion and economic integration.
However, these ambitions rest on a functioning aviation ecosystem. Persistent supply chain bottlenecks, ageing fleets and unreliable access to spare parts threaten to undermine the very growth these frameworks are designed to unlock.
A Broader Risk Convergence
Supply chain disruption is not the only risk facing the industry. Owens Thomsen’s broader risk landscape underscores how interconnected today’s challenges have become. Climate-related events are increasingly disrupting infrastructure and operations, while cyber threats and the misuse of artificial intelligence expose critical aviation systems to new vulnerabilities.
At the macroeconomic level, a weakening US dollar may offer some relief to non-USD-based airlines, particularly as more than half of aviation’s cost base is dollar-denominated. At the same time, structural changes in the oil market could place downward pressure on fuel prices, providing modest cost relief.
Yet these potential tailwinds may not be sufficient to offset the compounded effect of multiple, converging risks, particularly for regions such as Africa, where resilience buffers are thinner.
A Test of Resilience and Coordination
IATA’s identification of five key risks shaping aviation in 2026 offers a valuable framework for strategic planning. For Africa, the warning on supply chain disruption has already materialised, serving as a stress test for airline resilience and policy coordination.
Addressing the spare parts shortage will require closer engagement between airlines, manufacturers, regulators and financiers, as well as renewed focus on fleet planning and maintenance support. Failure to do so risks constraining Africa’s aviation potential at precisely the moment when demand, policy alignment and economic opportunity are converging.
As Owens Thomsen argues, aviation remains a powerful driver of growth, connectivity and productivity. Ensuring that African airlines can keep their aircraft in the air will be critical if the continent is to fully capture those benefits in the years ahead.
