In an interview with African Pilot late last year, Kent Gibbon spoke to Nicholas Ferguson, Executive Managing Director of RSA Aero Limited and Executive Director of Cape Winelands Aero (Pty) Ltd, about the commercial logic, infrastructure strategy and long-term impact of the Cape Winelands Airport development.
The confirmation of WBHO as the construction partner marked a definitive milestone for the project, shifting it from an ambitious concept to implementation. With the overall vision for the airport already in the public domain, the discussion focused on the underlying mechanics that position the airport as more than a conventional regional facility.
A central differentiator of Cape Winelands Airport is its role as a diversion alternative for all aircraft, including widebody code 4F aircraft. Ferguson explained that this opportunity was identified several years ago and initially modelled internally before being independently validated by a German aerospace performance modelling company based in Berlin.
A basket of existing domestic and international routes already operating into Cape Town International was analysed to quantify the impact of having a closer alternate airport. The modelling examined fuel savings, carbon emissions, the Rand value of fuel savings, and the amount of additional payload that could be carried.
Ferguson emphasised that the outcome is not theoretical. All aircraft, but most significantly long-haul aircraft, uplift significant volumes of additional fuel purely to meet diversion requirements to Johannesburg for wide-body aircraft and George or Port Elizabeth for narrow-body aircraft. An aircraft operating from Dubai, for example, typically loads around ten tonnes of “dead weight” in the form of reserve fuel. Of that, approximately four tonnes are burned en route simply to carry the remaining six tonnes, which must be retained in case a diversion back to Johannesburg is required.
If a closer destination alternate existed in the Western Cape, that fuel would not need to be carried. Instead, the aircraft could uplift payload. Depending on the route and aircraft, that payload could be cargo or passengers. On ultra-long-haul routes from the Americas, some airlines remove seats altogether because they are payload-restricted.
Ferguson noted that this payload displacement equates to fuel savings and a lost opportunity cost in the form of cargo of approximately R1 million per flight. He described the concept as “burning fuel to carry fuel”, adding that this inefficiency is structurally embedded in current operations into Cape Town.
The geographic context is critical. The distance between Cape Town and Johannesburg is comparable to London–Berlin. In the Northern Hemisphere, this opportunity does not exist because of airport density, with suitable alternates typically available nearly every 50 kilometres. In Africa and parts of South America, the combination of long distances and high traffic volumes creates a unique case.
To monetise this inefficiency, Cape Winelands Airport has structured a “Greenskies” partnership framework under which the value created by reduced fuel uplift is shared. Airlines retain half of the savings, while the airport uses the remaining half to fund infrastructure development. Ferguson stressed that this comes at no cost to airlines but, in fact, is a net gain to them.
He confirmed that firm written commitments have been secured from several airlines, including a prominent North American carrier, a major European airline, and a leading South African airline. These commitments are structured as 15-year agreements under which airlines will pay the airport each time it is nominated as an alternate. While formal nomination can only occur once the airport is operational, the contractual commitments are already in place.
Ferguson added that Cape Winelands Airport is already the third most filed alternate destination for Cape Town for smaller aircraft, meaning small general aviation airplanes see the benefit of having a closer destination alternate.
The scale of value creation is substantial. Ferguson estimated that the diversion model creates approximately R1 billion per year in value across the airline industry. Capitalised in perpetuity at a typical rate, this equates to approx R15 billion in value to the industry just by having Cape Winelands Airport accessible.
Putting the value Cape Winelands creates on day one into perspective, the combined annual profits of all African airlines are roughly US$50 million. The Cape Winelands Airport model alone creates approximately US$25 million in annual value to the industry. If one was taking this value creation as a benchmark against African Airline Profits, it represents around 50 percent of the entire continent’s airline profits, guaranteed and in perpetuity. This revenue stream underpins the airport’s financial viability from day one.
Turning to seasonality, Ferguson acknowledged that Cape Town remains a seasonal market, although the season is extending earlier and ending later. Middle Eastern leisure travel, for example, is increasingly evident during the northern summer months. While seasonality remains a factor, the airport’s strategy includes cargo operations and new route development to smooth demand.
In discussing capacity, Ferguson stated that Cape Town International is already constrained. An environmental impact assessment for a new runway realignment was approved in 2017, with the findings indicating capacity had effectively been reached by 2019. Capacity constraints relate not only to runway availability but also to terminal infrastructure and surface access during peak periods, where no slots are available during morning and afternoon peaks.
This context informed the decision to develop a 3,500-metre runway from the outset.
Detailed analysis conducted by Munich Airport’s consultancy arm concluded that this length allows unrestricted operations to the Americas and Asia with minimal or no payload penalties. Ferguson stated that if a product is being built, it should be built to the highest standard with the broadest capabilities from the beginning.
Terminal development will be modular. A master plan defines the ultimate capacity and spatial layout, but construction will be phased, typically in five-year increments, aligned with projected demand. Only what is required for each phase will be built.
On licensing, Ferguson explained that international airport designation is determined at national government level through a multi-departmental process involving Home Affairs, Transport, Agriculture, Police and others under the Border Management Authority framework. South Africa currently has ten international airports. One per province, except Gauteng, which has two in the form of ORT and Lanseria. The precedent for privately owned international airports in South Africa has already been set, most notably by Lanseria and Kruger Mpumalanga. Cape Winelands Airport should be seen as complementary to ACSA, not a competitor. The market is large enough, and competition will only benefit customers.
Cargo was also identified as a major opportunity, particularly for the Western Cape’s perishable exports. Ferguson noted that approximately 90 percent of cargo globally is carried in the belly of passenger aircraft. He highlighted the imbalance between cargo volumes through OR Tambo and Cape Town International, attributing much of it to fuel carriage constraints rather than demand.
Based on 2019 data, Ferguson stated that approximately 110,000 tonnes of fuel were carried unnecessarily on flights into Cape Town. By comparison, South Africa’s total air cargo market is around 400,000 tonnes. If that fuel capacity were converted to cargo, Cape Town’s share would rise to around 25 percent of the overall South African market, which he argued aligns more realistically with the region’s GDP and population. Cold storage and cargo facilities will be developed once international services commence.
Infrastructure connectivity was described as a further advantage. Traffic impact studies have been completed, and the airport is located within a natural northward growth corridor for Cape Town. Ferguson likened the site’s role to Midrand’s position between Johannesburg and Pretoria, acting as a catalyst connecting Cape Town, Paarl, Stellenbosch and Malmesbury.
On airspace integration, Ferguson stated that specialist consultants have conducted digital simulations demonstrating no conflict with existing operations. He noted that airspace
functions as layered “roads in the sky” and cited London’s multiple airports within close proximity as a practical precedent. He emphasised that airspace integration is not an issue.
Intra-African connectivity was identified as a key differentiator. Ferguson highlighted strong interest from major African carriers, particularly Ethiopian and Kenyan operators, and noted that these airlines represent the largest traffic volumes on the continent.
Fuel logistics and sustainability also formed part of the discussion. Sustainable aviation fuel will initially be accommodated through blending, reflecting global supply constraints. While hydrogen was acknowledged as a long-term possibility, Ferguson stated that supply limitations remain significant.
A notable advantage is the proximity of a railway line, enabling fuel delivery by rail from local refineries or the harbour. Ferguson stated that this creates resilience and allows for significant on-site fuel storage, with the potential to support Cape Town International during shortages.
Looking ahead to 2035, Ferguson described the objective of creating a balanced airport serving scheduled traffic, business aviation and surrounding municipalities. He characterised the development as one of the largest economic stimulators Cape Town has ever and will ever see, with impacts extending across employment, infrastructure and regional development.
The Cape Winelands Airport project represents a legacy development with wide-ranging economic impact, extending beyond the airport itself into a broader downstream value chain that positively affects people and economic activity.
