Oliver Wyman has released its 26th annual Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast (2026–2036), which highlights an aviation industry at a critical crossroads. While global passenger revenues are expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, a combination of supply chain constraints and labour shortages is forcing airlines to rely on an increasingly ageing fleet.
Africa’s aviation sector is expected to expand steadily over the next decade, but the trajectory of that growth will be shaped less by large-scale fleet expansion and more by the operational realities of ageing aircraft and rising maintenance requirements. The Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026–2036, from Oliver Wyman, a Marsh Business, suggests that Africa’s aviation development will follow a markedly different path from faster-growing markets in Asia and the Middle East.
The continent’s commercial fleet is projected to grow from roughly 1,250 aircraft in 2026 to about 1,920 aircraft by 2036, representing annual growth of around 4.4 percent. While this rate is slightly above the global average, Africa’s overall fleet will remain relatively small in global terms.
This modest expansion reflects structural realities within the region. Limited access to capital, fragmented airline markets, and slower fleet renewal cycles mean many African carriers will continue relying heavily on used aircraft sourced from secondary markets in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The continued inflow of mid-life aircraft is expected to remain a defining feature of the continent’s fleet composition.
As a result, Africa operates one of the oldest aircraft fleets in the global aviation system. Older aircraft typically require more frequent maintenance and component replacement, increasing operational costs and placing greater emphasis on maintenance capacity and technical capability.
This dynamic feeds directly into one of the most significant global trends highlighted in the report: the emergence of a maintenance, repair, and overhaul supercycle. Supply chain disruptions, delayed aircraft deliveries, and higher aircraft utilisation rates are collectively driving a surge in maintenance demand worldwide.
In Africa, where fleet age is already higher than in many other regions, the impact is expected to be particularly pronounced. Maintenance demand is projected to grow faster than fleet expansion over the next decade, with the region’s MRO market forecast to expand by more than five percent annually.
For African airlines, this will translate into rising maintenance costs and increasing reliance on technical infrastructure. At the same time, it presents a strategic opportunity. Expanding regional MRO capacity could reduce dependence on overseas maintenance providers while strengthening local aerospace expertise and supply chains.
Passenger and cargo demand across Africa continues to rise, supported by population growth, expanding trade, and improving regional connectivity. However, the next phase of the continent’s aviation development may depend less on how many aircraft are added to fleets and more on how effectively existing fleets are maintained and supported.
The future of Africa’s aviation growth may lie not only in fleet expansion, but in building the maintenance and technical ecosystems required to sustain it.
