Sub-Saharan Africa’s passenger market is growing across several unserved city pairs, but airline networks are not expanding at the same pace. Airbus’s latest Unserved Routes Report, presented at AviaDev Africa in June, found that the region recorded a net increase of only 11 routes operating at least three times a week between 2024 and 2025, despite strong traffic growth on several routes within Africa and between the continent and international markets.
Presenting the third edition of the report, Airbus Market Intelligence and Consulting Director Geert Lemaire said the analysis covered October 2024 to September 2025. Passenger traffic data was sourced from Sabre, while OAG provided schedules and capacity information.
Harare–London remained the largest unserved route linking sub-Saharan Africa with an international destination, followed by Mumbai–Johannesburg. Lagos–Guangzhou entered the leading group as traffic recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 period, while Kinshasa–Dubai recorded significant growth and Cape Town–Brussels returned to the list.
Air Zimbabwe has since launched its Harare–London Gatwick service on 23 July 2026. It operates three times weekly on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays using an Airbus A330-200. This route can no longer be described as unserved.
Entebbe–London was no longer included among the leading unserved routes following the introduction of Uganda Airlines’ nonstop service. Lagos–New York also gained a seasonal operation, while Nairobi–Washington fell back after the increase recorded during the previous reporting period.
Within Africa, Cape Town–Lagos showed particularly strong traffic growth. Abuja–Nairobi and Bamako–Brazzaville also appeared among the important unserved city pairs, while Abidjan–Douala gained a service through Kenya Airways’ tag-on operation from its Nairobi–Douala flight.
However, following and announcement from Kenya Airways around the 20th of June 2026, the tag on service may have been discontinued. Air Côte d’Ivoire continues to market services between Abidjan and Douala.
Although the composition of the route rankings has not changed dramatically, Lemaire said closer analysis showed airlines competing for passengers through their respective hubs. The underlying traffic on several unserved city pairs is growing even where a direct service has yet to be introduced.
Top unserved city pairs:
Based on the integration of observed origin-and-destination traffic data with scheduled flight data, the top unserved city pairs to and from sub-Saharan Africa for 2026 are:
- London–Harare
- Johannesburg–Mumbai
- Dubai–Kinshasa
- Lagos–Toronto
- Guangzhou–Lagos
- Douala–Dubai
- Dubai–Harare
- Brussels–Cape Town
- London–Zanzibar
- Brussels–Johannesburg
Nonstop Services Can Expand the Market
Uganda Airlines’ Entebbe–London service provided a practical example of how a direct route can affect passenger demand.
Airbus examined monthly non-directional origin-and-destination traffic from January 2023 to October 2025. During the first five months for which Uganda Airlines data was available, the carrier captured passengers who had previously travelled via connecting hubs and stimulated additional traffic.
The market handled approximately 9,500 passengers over the five-month period. Compared with the corresponding periods in the previous two years, traffic increased by around 3,000 passengers a month, representing growth of approximately 50%.
Lemaire said the figures demonstrated that introducing a nonstop flight can recover connecting traffic while activating demand that was not previously visible in the market.
It will be interesting to see what the data shows in a few months’ time following the launch of Air Zimbabwe’s non-stop Harare–London service. Harare–London was identified as the largest unserved route in the report.
Route Development Remains Limited
Airbus assessed the number of routes operating to, from and within sub-Saharan Africa at least three times a week. The frequency threshold was selected because three weekly services provide a minimum level of flexibility, particularly for passengers travelling for work.
In 2024, the region had 717 routes meeting this threshold. During the following year, 12 new routes were opened and seven were closed. Frequencies increased beyond three weekly services on 68 routes, while 62 routes experienced reductions.
Sub-Saharan Africa ended 2025 with 728 routes operating at least three times a week, representing a net increase of 11.
Lemaire described this as inadequate for a region of sub-Saharan Africa’s scale and argued that the result showed the need for greater ambition in route and network development.
The scale of the connectivity gap is also evident in passenger volumes. Approximately 88 million non-directional origin-and-destination passengers travelled to, from or within sub-Saharan Africa during the study period.
Around one-third of this traffic was domestic, 16% travelled across borders within sub-Saharan Africa and approximately half travelled between the region and destinations elsewhere.
This placed international traffic within sub-Saharan Africa at approximately 14 million passengers. Lemaire compared that figure with the annual traffic handled by individual European airports such as Birmingham, Hamburg and Naples, each of which had recently processed around 14 million passengers.
The comparison illustrates how limited cross-border passenger traffic remains within sub-Saharan Africa, despite the size of the region and the number of markets it contains.
Traffic Is Growing Behind the Unserved Routes
The slow pace of new route creation contrasts with the performance of the underlying city-pair markets.
Cape Town–Lagos recorded average annual growth of more than 70% across the periods covered by the three editions of the report. Bamako–Brazzaville and Dakar–Nairobi also achieved double-digit growth.
Seven of the eight intra-sub-Saharan African routes assessed across the three reporting periods recorded growth. Routes connecting sub-Saharan Africa with international destinations showed a similar pattern, with several markets producing double-digit increases.
The long-term development of Kinshasa–Dubai and Harare–Dubai was used to demonstrate how substantially a city-pair market can grow. Lemaire said the examples showed why airlines should not focus exclusively on current traffic or short-term opportunities when making network and fleet decisions.
Airbus cited Etihad Airways’ plans to serve Kinshasa and Harare from Abu Dhabi as an example of an airline positioning itself to enter markets as demand develops. Similar growth profiles were identified on Lagos–Toronto, Douala–Dubai, Cape Town–Brussels and London–Zanzibar.
Etihad recently announced that it will introduce three weekly Abu Dhabi–Harare–Lubumbashi services from 24 March 2027. The linked service is one of five new African route patterns announced by the airline in April, covering six destinations: Asmara, Accra, Kinshasa, Lagos, Harare and Lubumbashi.
In July, Etihad concluded additional African partnership arrangements: interline agreements with Fastjet Zimbabwe and Air Peace in Nigeria, and a memorandum of understanding with Africa World Airlines in Ghana. These partnerships are intended to provide onward connections from Harare, Lagos and Accra when Etihad’s new services to those markets begin.
Airbus expects many of Africa’s principal traffic flows to grow by more than 5% annually over the next 20 years. At that rate, traffic would double in approximately 15 years.
Lemaire urged airlines to size their fleets for long-term growth rather than only for immediate requirements, noting that fleets cannot be changed quickly when new market opportunities emerge.
Distance and Seasonality Shape African Route Economics
The geographic scale of the continent presents a significant network-planning challenge. Cape Town–Cairo is comparable in distance with London–Beijing, while travelling from Dakar to the opposite side of Africa is similar to flying from Dublin to Vancouver.
Many routes described as regional consequently require aircraft capable of operating long sectors.
Seasonality also affects traffic within, to and from sub-Saharan Africa. Passenger demand typically records two peak periods, one near the beginning of the year and another towards the end, with weaker demand between them.
These variations make it more difficult for airlines to sustain routes throughout the year, particularly where the available passenger market is already considered thin.
Premium Traffic and Belly Cargo Support the Business Case
Premium passengers represent approximately 4% of global traffic, including first class, business class and premium economy. In sub-Saharan Africa, the premium share rises to approximately 6%.
The share is higher on several unserved city pairs, reaching double-digit percentages on some of the routes examined by Airbus. Lemaire identified premium traffic as an important contributor to route revenue, but said African premium passengers expected a physically differentiated and comfortable seat.
Belly cargo provides another source of revenue. According to the data presented, belly cargo carried within sub-Saharan Africa doubled during the ten years from 2015.
Lemaire linked this growth to the limitations of road and rail infrastructure in parts of the continent. For passenger routes where demand may not be sufficient on its own, cargo transported in the aircraft hold can provide additional support to the commercial case.
Airbus Identifies a Role for Smaller Long-Range Aircraft
Airbus also analysed scheduled flights operating between July 2025 and June 2026, grouping the routes by distance and aircraft category.
The analysis identified a group of routes between approximately 3,000 and 4,200 nautical miles that were operated almost exclusively by wide-body aircraft. Within this category, 107 routes were recorded, of which 67 operated fewer than three times a week.
Airbus’s position is that deploying a smaller long-range aircraft on some of these routes could allow airlines to increase frequencies without adding the volume of seats associated with a wide-body aircraft.
Lemaire presented the A321XLR as a possible option for this part of the market, citing its range, lower capacity, premium seating, belly cargo capability and single-aisle operating costs.
Milan Malpensa–Zanzibar, Rome–Zanzibar, Istanbul–Seychelles and Luanda–Porto were among the examples of routes that are currently served but do not operate daily.
Airbus believes that using an aircraft with lower capacity on these sectors could improve frequency and connectivity while limiting the risk of adding too many seats, which could weaken load factors and yields.
Air Seychelles was identified as one African carrier considering this approach. Lemaire said the airline had received Cabinet approval to proceed with its long-term fleet planning and international expansion and was working towards a possible A321XLR lease agreement. The arrangement had not been finalised at the time of the presentation.
However, on 21 July 2026, Air Seychelles signed a lease agreement with SMBC Aviation Capital for two Airbus A321XLR aircraft in support of the airline’s long-haul strategy.
For Airbus, the A321XLR aircraft could allow a smaller airline to enter additional markets and broaden its network without introducing wide-body capacity on every long-distance route.
Growth Is Not Yet Being Converted into Connectivity
The Unserved Routes Report presents a market in which passenger demand is increasing, but the translation of that growth into direct routes and higher frequencies remains slow.
The report presented by Airbus suggests that route planning in Africa will increasingly depend on combining passenger growth with premium demand, belly cargo revenue, suitable aircraft capacity and long-term fleet preparation.
As Lemaire concluded, the market outlook is centred on growth. The question is whether airlines, airports and other industry participants will build the networks and capacity required to convert that growth into stronger connectivity.
Airbus’s June 2026 report, Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from and within Sub-Saharan Africa, Volume III – Download
