The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry, showing that profitability is expected to halve in 2026 as war-related Middle East disruptions and high fuel prices affect airline performance.
Global airline earnings are now expected to be significantly lower in 2026. IATA forecasts industry net profit of $23.0 billion, down from its previous projection of $41 billion and below the estimated $45 billion achieved in 2025. The net profit margin is expected to narrow to 2.0%, compared with 4.2% in 2025.
For Africa, IATA forecasts a net profit of $0.1 billion in 2026, down from an estimated $0.3 billion in 2025. The region’s net margin is expected to fall from 1.6% in 2025 to 0.2% in 2026, while profit per passenger is forecast to decline from $2.10 to $0.40.
African demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, is forecast to grow by 10.0% in 2026, compared with 9.8% in 2025. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, is forecast to increase by 7.7%, compared with 8.7% in 2025.
Africa is still expected to record strong traffic growth in 2026, helped by route shifts away from the Middle East. However, IATA’s outlook shows that this additional traffic is unlikely to translate into stronger profitability, with fuel supply, fuel pricing, lower aircraft utilisation and weaker balance sheets limiting the region’s financial upside.
The upside for Africa is expected to sit mainly with larger hub carriers that already have strong links into Europe and Asia. Airlines outside those networks, particularly smaller and more fragmented operators, are likely to face a tougher operating environment.
Structural constraints remain a factor for African aviation. IATA cited weak infrastructure, fragmented airspace and limited cross-border coordination as issues that reduce network efficiency and raise operating costs. It also noted that limited financial capacity and access to capital restrict fleet expansion and network development.
Globally, IATA expects total industry revenues to reach $1.165 trillion in 2026, up 9.4% from $1.065 trillion in 2025. Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.1 billion, while cargo volumes are forecast at 71.7 million tonnes.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said war-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs had shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse. He said global airline profits are expected to shrink from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion in 2026, while margins are expected to fall from 4.2% to 2.0%.
Walsh said airline bottom lines are being affected by the rapid 70% rise in jet fuel prices. He noted that while some of the additional cost is being recovered through price adjustments and efficiency improvements, it will not be enough to maintain profitability at the previous year’s level.
IATA expects fuel costs to rise by nearly 40%, from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion in 2026. Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 per barrel for the year, up almost 70% from $90 in 2025.
The outlook also identifies ongoing supply chain challenges, aircraft delivery constraints, higher lease rates, older fleets, infrastructure constraints and macro-economic uncertainty as factors affecting airline performance. IATA said the shortage of new aircraft raises costs and caps growth, while also affecting fuel efficiency gains.
For Africa, the outlook suggests continued traffic growth, but weaker profitability, with the benefits of rerouted traffic expected to be limited by rising fuel costs, financial constraints, infrastructure weaknesses, and fragmented operating conditions across the region.
For further reading:
Industry statistics fact sheet: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/industry-statistics/
June 2026 Global Outlook for Air Transport: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/industry-statistics/
