The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released estimates showing that global Sustainable Aviation Fuel production is expected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, representing just 0.8% of aviation fuel use. The additional cost to airlines is estimated at $4.3 billion.
IATA said production remains well below the level required to support aviation’s net zero by 2050 commitment. Five years after the industry made that commitment, SAF is still expected to account for less than 1% of airline fuel use in 2026.
The association said the pathway to meeting 65% of aviation’s fuel needs from SAF by 2050 is becoming more difficult because of ineffective government policy sequencing and limited interest from oil companies. It also noted that the current energy shock should add urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF, but that the incentives needed to create a viable market have not yet materialised.
To build supply at scale, IATA has identified the need for more renewable energy, sufficient feedstocks and clean energy for production, open access to fuel infrastructure, and fair access to pipelines, storage and airport fuel systems.
IATA also wants stronger policy support through better sequencing of production incentives and investment frameworks before mandates are imposed. The association said this would provide certainty, reduce risk and support the development of a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices.
A book-and-claim system is seen as essential to help move SAF from a local market to a global one. IATA said such a system would make SAF accessible to airlines and producers regardless of location, supported by harmonised standards and fair competition.
IATA also highlighted the challenge around electro-SAF, or e-SAF, which is expected to play a growing role in aviation decarbonisation alongside SAF from biofuel sources. E-SAF is produced through a power-to-liquid process using renewable electricity, but requires large volumes of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water and CO2.
The European Union and the United Kingdom have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. However, IATA said global production capacity currently operating and under construction stands at around 0.02 million tonnes, with only one production site in operation.
According to IATA, around 20 commercial-scale refineries would be needed to meet the mandated volume. The association also noted that no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been made over the past year.
IATA said the 2030 e-SAF targets set by the UK and the EU are not aligned with current production capacity. It warned that imposing mandates before production is enabled could increase prices and divert limited resources away from actual emissions reduction.
The association said a more serious strategy would first focus on scaling renewable energy production, reducing renewable energy costs and building e-SAF production capacity on commercially sound economics before mandates are applied.
IATA’s latest passenger survey, conducted in April 2026, shows continued support for the decarbonisation of air transport. According to the survey, 89% of passengers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their efforts.
Passenger support is not limited to principle; nearly two-thirds of respondents said they were willing to pay more to compensate for emissions, while nearly 88% expect ticket prices to rise because of sustainability investments.
Passengers also indicated a preference for direct decarbonisation measures. IATA said 25% of respondents prioritised the use of funds for SAF, while 23% prioritised emissions-reduction technologies. This compared with 10% who prioritised taxes.
Carbon performance is also beginning to influence booking behaviour. IATA’s survey found that 48% of travellers consider emissions when selecting flights, and more than 85% of that group said emissions influence their choice.
IATA said the survey points to strong passenger expectations for aviation decarbonisation, with passengers broadly supportive of the transition and increasingly factoring sustainability into their travel choices, even as cost and convenience remain important.
Get more details on IATA’s SAF platform: https://www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability/sustainable-aviation-fuel-saf/
