Africa’s aviation sector may need to prepare for a period of heightened weather-related operational risk as the continent responds to forecasts of a strong El Niño developing through the second half of 2026.
On 30 July, the African Union Commission convened an extraordinary session of its Specialised Technical Committee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Water and Environment to coordinate preparations for the anticipated 2026/27 El Niño. The meeting brought together Member States, Regional Economic Communities, climatologists and international partners to consider a continental action plan before the expected impacts materialise.
In its subsequent statement on 5 August, the African Union noted global and regional forecasts indicated a high probability of what it described as a “super El Niño” developing during late 2026. Potential consequences identified by the AU include drought, flooding, heatwaves, water stress, energy shortages and disruption to infrastructure and other critical sectors.
Whilst aviation was not identified as a separate workstream in the AU statement, many of those hazards have direct implications for airports, airlines and air navigation services.
The terminology also needs some care, and while the African Union has used the description “super El Niño”, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) does not use this term as an operational classification. The WMO specifically states that El Niño events are classified as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.
The distinction does not diminish the current warning, in its latest update on 31 July, the WMO said a strong El Niño was developing and expected to intensify during August to October 2026. Above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the world, while El Niño is likely to alter rainfall patterns, increasing the probability of wetter conditions in some areas and drought in others.
For African aviation, the important point is that El Niño does not produce the same weather across the continent. A continental El Niño forecast cannot, by itself, be used to predict disruption at a particular airport or on a particular route. Regional climate outlooks, national meteorological services and shorter-range aviation weather forecasts will become increasingly important as the event develops.
Heat Has a Direct Aircraft Performance Consequence
Higher temperatures have consequences beyond passenger comfort and terminal cooling. ICAO’s, Climate Risk Assessment, Adaptation and Resilience guidance, identifies reduced aircraft performance as one of the operational effects of higher average and extreme temperatures. Higher temperatures reduce air density, which can decrease engine thrust and aerodynamic performance, increase the required take-off distance and reduce climb performance.
Depending on the aircraft, runway, elevation and operating conditions, this can lead to take-off weight restrictions or other operational adjustments. The issue becomes particularly relevant when high temperatures coincide with airports where runway length or climb performance already constrain operations.
Extreme heat can also affect airfield surfaces, cooling systems, electrical equipment and working conditions for personnel. It may increase maintenance requirements at precisely the time when aircraft and airport systems are operating under additional environmental stress.
Flooding Can Quickly Become an Airport Problem
At the opposite end of the rainfall spectrum, intense precipitation and flooding can disrupt both airside and landside operations.
ICAO identifies flooding of runways and airport infrastructure, inadequate stormwater drainage, reduced surface friction, operational delays, cancellations and, in severe circumstances, temporary airport closure among the potential consequences of changing precipitation and extreme rainfall.
Water on movement areas can restrict aircraft and ground vehicle operations, while flooding beyond the airport boundary can affect road access, staff movements, cargo deliveries and other services on which an airport depends.
Heavy rain also commonly arrives with reduced visibility and convective weather. WMO’s aviation guidance identifies thunderstorms as a significant hazard because they can be accompanied by severe turbulence, lightning, hail, heavy precipitation, icing, microbursts and low-level wind shear.
For airlines and air navigation service providers, these conditions can result in rerouting, holding, diversions, reduced airport capacity, and additional fuel consumption. The disruption can extend well beyond the location experiencing the weather when aircraft and crews are operating through an interconnected regional network.
Drought Creates a Different Set of Aviation Risks
El Niño-related preparedness cannot concentrate solely on flooding. The AU has also highlighted the risk of drought, water shortages, heatwaves and fires in affected parts of Africa.
ICAO’s climate resilience work identifies reduced water availability as a potential operational problem for airports. Water shortages can affect terminals, sanitation, catering, firefighting capability and other airport services, making continuity planning important where municipal supplies are vulnerable.
Prolonged dry conditions may also increase exposure to dust and sand in susceptible regions. WMO identifies dust and sandstorms as aviation hazards capable of drastically reducing visibility. In severe conditions, ingestion of dust or sand can also affect aircraft engines and other equipment.
The AU’s warning about possible energy shortages adds another infrastructure consideration. Airports, air traffic facilities, navigation aids, communications and fuel installations all depend on reliable electricity.
The aviation consequence is not a prediction that El Niño will cause airport power failures, but it gives operators a clear reason to test backup power arrangements and the resilience of critical systems before periods of severe weather.
Disruption Can Reach the Airport Through Its Supply Chain
An airport does not need to be physically flooded or damaged for its operations to be affected. Jet fuel, catering, spare parts and other essential supplies depend on infrastructure extending far beyond the airport perimeter. IATA’s Jet Fuel Business Continuity Plan guidance, updated in May 2026, illustrates how aviation fuel supply can depend on combinations of import terminals, pipelines, coastal shipping, rail and road transport.
Flooding, storm damage or other disruption to any critical part of that chain can create an aviation problem some distance away. This makes fuel contingency arrangements and alternative supply routes part of the wider resilience discussion, particularly at airports with limited storage or few alternative sources of supply.
Aviation Will Also Form Part of the Humanitarian Response
The aviation sector has another role in Africa’s El Niño preparations beyond protecting scheduled operations.
Should flooding, drought or other extreme weather develop into a humanitarian emergency, airports and aircraft are likely to become an important part of the response. ICAO’s Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response in Aviation programme describes aviation as an essential lifeline following disasters, particularly for the rapid movement of relief supplies, equipment and humanitarian specialists.
Forewarned Is Forearmed
While the WMO stresses that every El Niño develops differently and that impacts may vary considerably between regions, the forecasts do provide advance warning, providing the aviation sector in Africa with an opportunity to identify vulnerabilities before weather conditions begin testing them.
