African airlines increased air cargo demand by 4.7% in September 2026 compared with September 2025, despite a 1.2% contraction in capacity. The International Air Transport Association’s latest Air Cargo Market Analysis, published on 29 October 2026, shows that their cargo load factor rose by 2.7 percentage points to 47.0% as more freight was carried on less available lift.
Demand is measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) and capacity in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK). The cargo load factor is the proportion of that capacity used. IATA’s regional figures group airlines by country of registration, rather than by the origin or destination of their cargo. African carriers accounted for 2.1% of industry CTKs in 2025, the basis for the report’s world-share figures.
International demand returns to growth
African airlines’ international cargo demand also increased by 4.7% year-on-year in September. International capacity fell by 0.9%, lifting the international cargo load factor by 2.6 percentage points to 48.2%. These figures are distinct from the total-market measures, which include domestic operations.
The September report makes a material correction to the preceding month. IATA revised African carriers’ August international CTK growth from the previously reported 3.0% increase to a 1.1% decline. September marked a return to annual growth. The change between the two months’ year-on-year growth rates was 5.8 percentage points; it was not a measure of month-on-month traffic growth.
For January–September 2026, African carriers’ total cargo demand was 6.5% above the same period in 2025, while capacity was 0.4% lower. Their total cargo load factor increased by 2.9 percentage points to 45.5%. International demand also rose by 6.5% over the nine months, with capacity down 0.4% and the international load factor up 3.1 percentage points to 47.0%.
Africa–Asia trade lane returns to growth
The Africa–Asia corridor returned to annual growth with a 2.6% rise in cargo demand in September, according to IATA’s accompanying release. The route accounted for 1.3% of total industry CTKs in 2025.
Route-area statistics include all airlines operating a corridor, irrespective of registration. The Africa–Asia result measures a geographic cargo flow, whereas the 4.7% African-carrier figure measures the performance of airlines registered in Africa. The two series describe different parts of the market and should not be treated as interchangeable.
Global demand outpaces capacity
Across the industry, cargo demand rose by 7.7% year-on-year in September, accelerating from 4.4% in August. Capacity increased by 2.7%, and the global cargo load factor reached 47.9%, up 2.2 percentage points from September 2025. All carrier regions recorded demand growth.
Asia Pacific and North American airlines together supplied 77.0% of the increase in global CTKs. IATA’s regional contribution chart places Africa’s performance within that wider expansion: it shows each carrier region’s contribution to industry growth in percentage points, rather than the growth rate of the region itself.
Fuel increases exceed yield growth
The stronger traffic figures were accompanied by further cost pressure. Jet fuel averaged USD 184.5 per barrel in September, 17.5% above August and 103.4% higher than a year earlier. Global cargo yields in US dollars rose by 2.0% month-on-month and 25.9% year-on-year, substantially less than the fuel increases.
IATA attributed the fuel pressure to higher crude prices and constrained refined-product supply. Persian Gulf disruptions and pressure on shipping routes and energy infrastructure restricted crude availability, while constrained Middle Eastern export routes complicated refined-product movements. Reduced Russian exports tightened middle-distillate supply, and stronger diesel margins reportedly encouraged refiners to favour diesel over jet fuel production.
IATA says higher load factors supported cargo rates. Its fuel-and-yield chart is a global comparison, indexed to January 2019, rather than an Africa-specific measure.
