23 October 2026

Airbus Forecasts 1,640 New Passenger Aircraft Required for Africa by 2045, with Ethiopia’s Passenger Traffic Set to Increase Almost Sixfold

Airbus forecasts demand for 1,640 new passenger aircraft across Africa by 2045, with Ethiopian origin-and-destination passenger traffic expected to increase almost sixfold.

An Ethiopian Airlines Airbus A350-900 in flight against a clear blue sky. — An Ethiopian Airlines Airbus A350-900 on approach. Airbus projects that Ethiopia’s origin-and-destination passenger traffic will increase almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045. Illustrative photograph only. No aircraft order by the airline pictured is implied. [© African Pilot Magazine | Tim Homan]

Edited by:

African Pilot Newsdesk

Why this article matters
Airbus’ forecast provides a long-term outlook for commercial aircraft demand across Africa, including fleet renewal and growth requirements. The projections are relevant to African airlines, aircraft manufacturers, aviation infrastructure planning and regional air connectivity.

Of Interest
Airbus Global Market Forecast 2026: Africa
- Forecast period: 2025–2045
- New passenger aircraft required: 1,640
- Single-aisle aircraft: 1,310
- Widebody aircraft: 330
- Annual passenger traffic growth: 4.9%
- Ethiopia origin-and-destination traffic: Almost sixfold increase by 2045
- Ethiopia yearly trips per capita: 150% increase by 2045
- Nigeria and South Africa yearly trips per capita: 100% increase each by 2045
- Latest-generation aircraft share of African fleet: 30% in 2025, rising to 65% by 2035
- Forecast African population increase: 720 million by 2045
- Forecast real GDP CAGR: 4.0%
- Forecast real trade CAGR: 3.9%

Africa will require 1,640 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026), as demographic expansion, economic growth, trade and tourism continue to drive demand for air connectivity across the continent. The forecast includes demand for 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody aircraft by 2045.

The outlook reflects the significant long-term potential of Africa’s aviation market. Passenger traffic from, to and within Africa is expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, growing at 4.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), making it the continent with the second-fastest growing aviation market in the world after Asia.

An Air Algérie Airbus A330 in a green and red special livery on approach against a grey sky. — An Air Algérie Airbus A330 in a special livery on approach. Airbus forecasts demand for 330 new widebody passenger aircraft across Africa by 2045. Illustrative photograph only. No aircraft order by the airline pictured is implied. [© African Pilot Magazine | Tim Homan]

Taking a closer look at the African market, Ethiopia is expected to see one of the strongest aviation growth rates, with origin-and-destination passenger traffic forecasted to increase almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045.

An Air Côte d’Ivoire Airbus A320neo just above the runway, with trees and a windsock behind. — An Air Côte d’Ivoire Airbus A320neo on approach. Airbus forecasts demand for 1,310 new single-aisle passenger aircraft across Africa by 2045. Illustrative photograph only. No aircraft order by the airline pictured is implied. [© African Pilot Magazine | Tim Homan]

Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and Middle East, said, “Aviation is one of the most powerful catalysts for Africa’s broader economic development. As we look toward a future of unprecedented passenger growth, building a strong, collaborative aviation ecosystem will seamlessly connect communities, accelerate regional trade, and unlock new avenues of shared prosperity across Ethiopia and the whole continent.”

Growth will be supported by strong demographic and economic fundamentals. Africa’s population is expected to increase by 720 million people to over two billion by 2045, while its middle-class population will grow by 180 million and its urban population by 450 million or 47% of the overall population. Over the 2025-2045 period, real GDP and real trade are forecast to grow at CAGRs of 4.0% and 3.9%, respectively, further supporting long-term demand for connectivity and air travel.

The propensity to travel is expected to rise significantly across major African markets. By 2045, yearly trips per capita are forecast to surge by 150% in Ethiopia and increase by 100% in both Nigeria and South Africa. These strong percentage increases equate to millions of additional passengers annually. Reflecting this immense growth potential and expanding connectivity, overall air capacity from, to, and within the continent already more than doubled between 2005 and 2025.

A South African Airways Airbus A320 in flight against a cloudy sky. — A South African Airways Airbus A320 (ZS-SZD) on approach. Airbus forecasts a 100% increase in annual air trips per capita in South Africa by 2045. Illustrative photograph only. No aircraft order by the airline pictured is implied. [© African Pilot Magazine | Tim Homan]

Tourism and trade will remain important enablers of Africa’s aviation growth. Greater visa openness, expanding fifth-freedom connectivity and trade integration are supporting passenger travel across the continent. The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and continued investment in regional and airport infrastructure also have the potential to strengthen intra-African trade and connectivity, while improving access to remote tourism destinations.

An Air Mauritius Airbus A350-900 on approach over grassland under a cloudy sky. — An Air Mauritius Airbus A350-900 (3B-NCE) on approach. Airbus identifies tourism and improved air connectivity as factors supporting long-term passenger traffic growth across Africa. Illustrative photograph only. No aircraft order by the airline pictured is implied. [© African Pilot Magazine | Tim Homan]

Africa is also accelerating the transition towards latest generation aircraft, with these aircraft expected to represent 65% of the region’s fleet by 2035, up from 30% in 2025. This fleet modernisation will help boost efficiency and support the long-term sustainability of Africa’s aviation sector.