The escalating conflict in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through the global economy, with Africa once again absorbing the consequences of a crisis beyond its borders. While the continent has demonstrated resilience through successive global disruptions, the current situation is unfolding with unusual speed and intensity, exposing structural vulnerabilities in energy, food systems, finance and trade. For sectors such as aviation and logistics, the implications are immediate and far-reaching, as rising costs and shifting routes begin to redefine operational realities.
The most immediate impact has been energy. Oil prices surged by more than 50 percent by late March 2026, placing significant pressure on African economies that are heavily dependent on fuel imports. At the same time, the currencies of 29 African countries have weakened, increasing the local cost of servicing external debt and importing essential goods. This dual pressure is feeding directly into inflation, tightening fiscal space, and amplifying the risk of a broader cost-of-living crisis across the continent. For governments already managing constrained budgets, the margin for manoeuvre is narrowing rapidly.
These macroeconomic pressures are being compounded by disruptions to global trade and logistics. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments, has become a focal point of concern, with any instability in the region translating into higher energy costs worldwide. In response, shipping routes are increasingly being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, driving higher traffic through ports in South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius. While this rerouting is creating short-term gains for port activity and maritime services, it is also increasing shipping times and costs, which ultimately filter through to consumers. For the aviation sector, higher fuel prices and evolving global routing dynamics are placing additional strain on operational efficiency and profitability.
Perhaps the most consequential, yet less visible, impact lies in fertiliser supply. The Middle East plays a central role in the production of ammonia and urea, both of which are essential for agricultural productivity. Disruptions to Gulf energy supplies are constraining fertiliser availability at a critical moment, coinciding with the March to May planting season across much of Africa. The implications are significant. Reduced fertiliser access is likely to suppress agricultural output, placing upward pressure on food prices and intensifying food insecurity. For low-income households, which already spend a large proportion of their income on food, this creates a particularly acute vulnerability.
The economic outlook is further clouded by the prospect of slower growth. Projections indicate that Africa’s GDP growth could decline by at least 0.2 percentage points in 2026 if the conflict persists beyond six months. The impact will not be uniform. Countries with high levels of import dependency, limited foreign exchange reserves, and substantial external debt obligations are likely to face the greatest strain. In these contexts, rising import costs and currency depreciation are converging to create a fiscal squeeze, limiting the ability of governments to respond effectively to the crisis.
At the same time, the conflict is reshaping geopolitical dynamics in ways that could have lasting implications for Africa. Increased competition among global powers for influence over strategic assets, including ports, trade corridors, and critical minerals, is likely to intensify. Fragile states such as Sudan, Somalia, and Libya may become further entangled in external rivalries, while shifting donor priorities could redirect funding away from African development and humanitarian programmes. This evolving landscape adds an additional layer of complexity to an already challenging economic environment.
Despite the overarching pressures, there are pockets of opportunity emerging. Higher commodity prices are benefiting certain exporters, particularly in the oil and gas sectors. Nigeria, for example, stands to gain from elevated oil prices and increased refining capacity, while Mozambique may see renewed momentum in its liquefied natural gas industry. Similarly, the rerouting of global shipping is enhancing the strategic importance of ports such as Durban and Walvis Bay, while countries like Kenya are strengthening their role as regional logistics hubs. However, these gains are uneven and are unlikely to offset the broader inflationary and fiscal pressures affecting the majority of the continent.
In response to these challenges, African institutions and development partners are advocating for a coordinated, multi-layered policy approach. In the immediate term, the priority is to stabilise access to essential goods, including fuel, food, and fertiliser, while protecting vulnerable populations through targeted social support measures. Medium-term strategies focus on strengthening energy security, expanding regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area, and improving domestic resource mobilisation. Over the longer term, the emphasis shifts towards building structural resilience through African-led financial mechanisms, deeper regional integration, and reduced dependence on external shocks.
A key development in this regard is the African Export-Import Bank’s approval of a US$10 billion Gulf Crisis Response Programme. This initiative is designed to provide critical liquidity support to African and Caribbean economies, enabling them to sustain essential imports and stabilise financial systems. It also seeks to support exporters in scaling production to take advantage of shifting trade flows, while investing in infrastructure across energy, ports, and logistics. Importantly, the programme reflects a broader shift towards proactive, African-led solutions aimed at strengthening resilience in the face of global volatility.
Ultimately, the Middle East conflict represents both a crisis and a catalyst. It is exposing deep-rooted structural weaknesses in Africa’s economic systems, particularly in relation to external dependency and limited financial buffers. At the same time, it is reinforcing the urgency of long-standing reform priorities, from energy diversification and food security to financial autonomy and regional integration. The choices made in response to this moment will shape not only how the continent navigates the current shock, but also how it prepares for those that inevitably lie ahead.
Further reading:
African Development Bank: The Impacts of the Middle East Conflict on Africa
The ongoing Middle East conflict presents a serious risk to Africa, with most countries still growing at rates below the pre-COVID growth path. Overall, a loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage points on Africa’s GDP is projected for 2026 if it exceeds six months. The extent of this impact would vary across the continent based on levels of import dependency, exposure to the Middle East, and global market conditions. This is according to a joint policy document presented on Wednesday, 15 April 2026, in Washington, D.C., by the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
