27 April 2026

Jet Fuel Supplies for Southern Africa

Airlines across Southern Africa are facing growing uncertainty over jet fuel availability beyond May 2026, with industry bodies warning that limited visibility on supply could disrupt schedules, increase costs, and impact regional connectivity. The situation, driven by geopolitical tensions and constrained refinery output, has already triggered sharp price increases and operational adjustments across the sector,…

Why this article matters
The uncertainty around jet fuel supply is not a short-term operational issue. It directly affects schedule reliability, route viability, and the cost base of airlines across Southern Africa. With fuel accounting for up to 40% of operating costs, sustained price volatility and supply constraints force airlines to reduce frequencies, consolidate routes, and pass costs onto passengers through surcharges.

Beyond the airlines themselves, the impact extends across the wider economy. Air transport underpins regional trade, tourism, time-sensitive cargo, and the movement of essential goods, including pharmaceuticals. Any disruption to fuel availability risks weakening already fragile connectivity across the SADC region, particularly for landlocked markets that depend heavily on air links.

At a structural level, the situation exposes the region’s dependence on imported fuel and limited strategic reserves. Without clear contingency planning, transparent stock reporting, and coordinated regional response mechanisms, the sector remains vulnerable to external shocks, with limited ability to absorb or mitigate them.

Of Interest
- Jet fuel prices in Southern Africa increased from around ZAR8.50/litre (mid-February 2026) to over ZAR30.00/litre (mid-April 2026)
- In landlocked countries such as Malawi, prices reached over ZAR50.00/litre
- Jet fuel accounts for up to 40% of airline operating costs in the region
- Airlines require visibility on fuel supply beyond a six-week horizon

On 24th April 2026, the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA) noted with grave concern the lack of clarity around the availability of jet fuel across the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, beyond next month (May 2026).

Air transport, which is a crucial pillar for the SADC members’ economies, is particularly susceptible to disrupted fuel supplies because it depends almost entirely on imported crude oil and refined Jet-A1 kerosene.

Airlines require certainty on the security of jet fuel supplies beyond a six-week horizon if they are to maintain their schedules and fulfil their obligations to customers. While we hope the situation in the Gulf will be resolved sooner so fuel shipments can resume, we must safeguard aviation in case the impasse continues. With this in mind, AASA pleads with the region’s fuel suppliers, depots (including airports) and all the SADC member governments to urgently share their contingency fuel allocation and distribution plans with the aviation industry.

Even when the Straits of Hormuz blockades are lifted, it will take months at the very least for fuel production to return to its previous output, as several refineries in the Gulf have been damaged and will need to be repaired or rebuilt. This is why we need transparent updates on fuel stocks, including what has been ordered but must still be delivered, as well as the status of national strategic fuel reserves, the conditions that would trigger their release and how those reserves would be allocated and prioritised.

Since the US-Israel-Iran war began, jet fuel prices in Southern Africa have, on average, more than trebled from around ZAR8.50 a litre in mid-February to over ZAR30.00 a litre by mid-April. In landlocked countries such as Malawi, the Jet-A1 prices have raced to over ZAR50.00 a litre. These increases have been on the back of rising crude oil prices and concerns about the security of supplies. The increases have exacerbated the situation for African airlines, which, even before the current crisis, were paying some of the highest jet fuel prices in the world. In fact, jet fuel accounted for up to 40% of some of our region’s carriers’ costs.

The latest spike has prompted most SADC-based airlines to implement cost recovery mechanisms in the form of fuel surcharges, and some carriers have also begun reducing frequencies and consolidating flights. However, airlines cannot plan or operate in an information vacuum.

Airlines are painfully aware of the pressure that increased ticket prices exert on their customers and the ripple effects across the economy when considering how much we all depend on air transport, not only for flying passengers, but for the transport of goods and essential pharmaceuticals and other perishables, e-commerce goods, courier services and high-value cargo.